![\"\u751f\u8096\"](\"https:\/\/0592ban.cn\/tu\/78.jpg\"\/)
<\/p>\n<\/p>\n
\n \u5728\u4e2d\u534e\u4f20\u7edf\u6587\u5316\u4e2d\uff0c\u751f\u8096\u4f5c\u4e3a\u5341\u4e8c\u5730\u652f\u4e0e\u52a8\u7269\u8c61\u5f81\u7ed3\u5408\u7684\u4ea7\u7269\uff0c\u6df1\u6df1\u5f71\u54cd\u7740\u4eba\u4eec\u7684\u65e5\u5e38\u751f\u6d3b\u4e0e\u5fc3\u7406\u9884\u671f\u3002\u6bcf\u9022\u5e74\u8282\u6216\u91cd\u8981\u51b3\u7b56\u65f6\u523b\uff0c\u8bb8\u591a\u4eba\u4f1a\u53c2\u8003\u751f\u8096\u8fd0\u52bf\u6765\u8c03\u6574\u81ea\u5df1\u7684\u884c\u4e3a\u65b9\u5f0f\u548c\u751f\u6d3b\u8282\u594f\u3002\u8fd1\u671f\u5173\u4e8e\u201c\u864e\u5e74\u4eba\u58eb\u8d22\u8fd0\u4ea8\u901a\u4f46\u6295\u8d44\u9700\u8c28\u614e\u907f\u514d\u51b2\u52a8\u51b3\u7b56\u201d\u7684\u63d0\u9192\uff0c\u6b63\u662f\u8fd9\u79cd\u6587\u5316\u5fc3\u7406\u5728\u73b0\u4ee3\u793e\u4f1a\u4e2d\u7684\u5ef6\u7eed\u4e0e\u4f53\u73b0\u3002\u8fd9\u4e00\u8bf4\u6cd5\u770b\u4f3c\u7b80\u5355\uff0c\u5b9e\u5219\u8574\u542b\u4e86\u6df1\u5c42\u7684\u6587\u5316\u903b\u8f91\u3001\u5fc3\u7406\u5b66\u673a\u5236\u4ee5\u53ca\u73b0\u5b9e\u7ecf\u6d4e\u73af\u5883\u7684\u6620\u5c04\u3002\n<\/p>\n
\n \u201c\u864e\u5e74\u4eba\u58eb\u201d\u6307\u7684\u662f\u51fa\u751f\u5728\u519c\u5386\u864e\u5e74\u7684\u4eba\u7fa4\uff0c\u59821974\u5e74\u30011986\u5e74\u30011998\u5e74\u30012010\u5e74\u7b49\u5e74\u4efd\u3002\u5728\u4e2d\u56fd\u4f20\u7edf\u89c2\u5ff5\u4e2d\uff0c\u864e\u8c61\u5f81\u52c7\u731b\u3001\u679c\u6562\u4e0e\u6743\u5a01\uff0c\u5c5e\u864e\u4e4b\u4eba\u5e38\u88ab\u8ba4\u4e3a\u5177\u6709\u9886\u5bfc\u529b\u3001\u884c\u52a8\u529b\u5f3a\u3001\u4e0d\u60e7\u6311\u6218\u7684\u6027\u683c\u7279\u8d28\u3002\u8fd9\u4e9b\u6027\u683c\u7279\u5f81\u5728\u67d0\u4e9b\u60c5\u5883\u4e0b\u786e\u5b9e\u6709\u52a9\u4e8e\u628a\u63e1\u673a\u9047\uff0c\u5c24\u5176\u662f\u5728\u8d22\u5bcc\u79ef\u7d2f\u65b9\u9762\uff0c\u5f80\u5f80\u8868\u73b0\u51fa\u8f83\u5f3a\u7684\u8fdb\u53d6\u5fc3\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u5f53\u8fd0\u52bf\u63d0\u793a\u201c\u8d22\u8fd0\u4ea8\u901a\u201d\u65f6\uff0c\u5e76\u975e\u7a7a\u7a74\u6765\u98ce\uff0c\u800c\u662f\u57fa\u4e8e\u5bf9\u5c5e\u864e\u8005\u6574\u4f53\u884c\u4e3a\u6a21\u5f0f\u7684\u4e00\u79cd\u5f52\u7eb3\u6027\u5224\u65ad\u3002\u4ed6\u4eec\u5728\u9762\u5bf9\u673a\u4f1a\u65f6\u66f4\u613f\u610f\u4e3b\u52a8\u51fa\u51fb\uff0c\u6562\u4e8e\u5c1d\u8bd5\u65b0\u9886\u57df\uff0c\u4ece\u800c\u5728\u7279\u5b9a\u65f6\u95f4\u6bb5\u5185\u66f4\u5bb9\u6613\u83b7\u5f97\u8d22\u52a1\u4e0a\u7684\u6b63\u5411\u53cd\u9988\u3002\n<\/p>\n
\n \u201c\u8d22\u8fd0\u4ea8\u901a\u201d\u5e76\u4e0d\u7b49\u4e8e\u201c\u7a33\u8d5a\u4e0d\u8d54\u201d\u3002\u8fd9\u53e5\u8bdd\u80cc\u540e\u53cd\u6620\u7684\u662f\u4eba\u4eec\u5bf9\u597d\u8fd0\u7684\u5fc3\u7406\u671f\u5f85\uff0c\u5bb9\u6613\u5f15\u53d1\u76f2\u76ee\u4e50\u89c2\u7684\u60c5\u7eea\u3002\u5728\u73b0\u5b9e\u751f\u6d3b\u4e2d\uff0c\u8d22\u8fd0\u7684\u597d\u8f6c\u53ef\u80fd\u6e90\u4e8e\u591a\u79cd\u56e0\u7d20\uff1a\u5e02\u573a\u73af\u5883\u7684\u6539\u5584\u3001\u884c\u4e1a\u5468\u671f\u7684\u4e0a\u5347\u3001\u4e2a\u4eba\u52aa\u529b\u7684\u79ef\u7d2f\uff0c\u751a\u81f3\u5076\u7136\u7684\u673a\u9047\u3002\u82e5\u5c06\u4e00\u5207\u5f52\u56e0\u4e8e\u751f\u8096\u8fd0\u52bf\uff0c\u5219\u53ef\u80fd\u5ffd\u89c6\u4e86\u5bf9\u5b9e\u9645\u98ce\u9669\u7684\u8bc4\u4f30\u3002\u5c24\u5176\u5728\u5f53\u524d\u5168\u7403\u7ecf\u6d4e\u6ce2\u52a8\u52a0\u5267\u3001\u91d1\u878d\u5e02\u573a\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\u4e0a\u5347\u7684\u80cc\u666f\u4e0b\uff0c\u4efb\u4f55\u201c\u597d\u8fd0\u201d\u90fd\u5e94\u88ab\u89c6\u4e3a\u6682\u65f6\u6027\u7684\u7a97\u53e3\u671f\uff0c\u800c\u975e\u957f\u671f\u4fdd\u969c\u3002\n<\/p>\n
\n \u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u7d27\u968f\u5176\u540e\u7684\u201c\u6295\u8d44\u9700\u8c28\u614e\uff0c\u907f\u514d\u51b2\u52a8\u51b3\u7b56\u201d\u663e\u5f97\u5c24\u4e3a\u5173\u952e\u3002\u8fd9\u4e0d\u4ec5\u662f\u5bf9\u5c5e\u864e\u8005\u6027\u683c\u4e2d\u201c\u51b2\u52a8\u201d\u4e00\u9762\u7684\u5584\u610f\u63d0\u9192\uff0c\u66f4\u662f\u5bf9\u73b0\u4ee3\u7406\u8d22\u7406\u5ff5\u7684\u547c\u5e94\u3002\u5fc3\u7406\u5b66\u7814\u7a76\u8868\u660e\uff0c\u4eba\u5728\u60c5\u7eea\u9ad8\u6da8\u6216\u81ea\u4fe1\u8fc7\u5ea6\u65f6\uff0c\u5bb9\u6613\u4ea7\u751f\u201c\u8fc7\u5ea6\u81ea\u4fe1\u504f\u5dee\u201d\uff08overconfidence bias\uff09\uff0c\u5373\u9ad8\u4f30\u81ea\u8eab\u5224\u65ad\u7684\u51c6\u786e\u6027\uff0c\u4f4e\u4f30\u6f5c\u5728\u98ce\u9669\u3002\u5c5e\u864e\u8005\u56e0\u5929\u6027\u679c\u6562\uff0c\u5728\u8d22\u8fd0\u770b\u4f3c\u987a\u7545\u65f6\uff0c\u66f4\u53ef\u80fd\u503e\u5411\u4e8e\u5feb\u901f\u51b3\u7b56\u3001\u91cd\u4ed3\u6295\u5165\uff0c\u751a\u81f3\u8ffd\u9010\u77ed\u671f\u70ed\u70b9\u3002\u4f8b\u5982\uff0c\u5728\u80a1\u5e02\u4e0a\u6da8\u521d\u671f\u679c\u65ad\u5165\u573a\u672c\u662f\u660e\u667a\u4e4b\u4e3e\uff0c\u4f46\u82e5\u56e0\u4e00\u65f6\u76c8\u5229\u800c\u8ffd\u52a0\u6760\u6746\u6216\u9891\u7e41\u4ea4\u6613\uff0c\u5219\u6781\u6613\u9677\u5165\u9ad8\u4f4d\u5957\u7262\u7684\u98ce\u9669\u3002\n<\/p>\n
\n \u6295\u8d44\u9886\u57df\u7684\u590d\u6742\u6027\u8fdc\u8d85\u4e00\u822c\u4eba\u7684\u8ba4\u77e5\u8303\u56f4\u3002\u5373\u4fbf\u662f\u4e13\u4e1a\u6295\u8d44\u8005\uff0c\u4e5f\u96be\u4ee5\u6301\u7eed\u51c6\u786e\u9884\u6d4b\u5e02\u573a\u8d70\u52bf\u3002\u5bf9\u4e8e\u666e\u901a\u6c11\u4f17\u800c\u8a00\uff0c\u4f9d\u8d56\u751f\u8096\u8fd0\u52bf\u6765\u505a\u8d44\u4ea7\u914d\u7f6e\uff0c\u672c\u8eab\u5c31\u5b58\u5728\u903b\u8f91\u6f0f\u6d1e\u3002\u771f\u6b63\u7684\u8d22\u5bcc\u7ba1\u7406\u5e94\u5efa\u7acb\u5728\u79d1\u5b66\u7684\u98ce\u9669\u8bc4\u4f30\u3001\u8d44\u4ea7\u5206\u6563\u3001\u957f\u671f\u89c4\u5212\u4e4b\u4e0a\uff0c\u800c\u975e\u5409\u51f6\u5b9c\u5fcc\u7684\u6a21\u7cca\u6307\u5f15\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e00\u63d0\u9192\u5b9e\u9645\u4e0a\u662f\u5728\u5021\u5bfc\u4e00\u79cd\u7406\u6027\u56de\u5f52\uff1a\u5373\u4fbf\u8fd0\u52bf\u770b\u597d\uff0c\u4e5f\u4e0d\u53ef\u653e\u677e\u8b66\u60d5\uff1b\u5373\u4fbf\u673a\u4f1a\u663e\u73b0\uff0c\u4e5f\u8981\u4ee5\u5ba1\u614e\u6001\u5ea6\u5bf9\u5f85\u3002\n<\/p>\n
\n \u4ece\u793e\u4f1a\u4f20\u64ad\u89d2\u5ea6\u770b\uff0c\u8fd9\u7c7b\u751f\u8096\u8fd0\u52bf\u4fe1\u606f\u4e4b\u6240\u4ee5\u5e7f\u4e3a\u6d41\u4f20\uff0c\u4e0e\u5176\u8868\u8fbe\u65b9\u5f0f\u5bc6\u5207\u76f8\u5173\u3002\u5b83\u91c7\u7528\u201c\u5148\u626c\u540e\u6291\u201d\u7684\u7ed3\u6784\u2014\u2014\u5148\u7ed9\u4e88\u79ef\u6781\u7684\u5fc3\u7406\u6697\u793a\uff0c\u518d\u63d0\u51fa\u8b66\u793a\u5efa\u8bae\u2014\u2014\u65e2\u6ee1\u8db3\u4e86\u4eba\u4eec\u5bf9\u7f8e\u597d\u672a\u6765\u7684\u5411\u5f80\uff0c\u53c8\u4e0d\u5931\u4e3a\u4e00\u79cd\u6e29\u548c\u7684\u98ce\u9669\u6559\u80b2\u3002\u8fd9\u79cd\u65b9\u5f0f\u6bd4\u5355\u7eaf\u7684\u8bf4\u6559\u66f4\u5177\u4eb2\u548c\u529b\uff0c\u4e5f\u66f4\u5bb9\u6613\u88ab\u5927\u4f17\u63a5\u53d7\u3002\u7279\u522b\u662f\u5728\u793e\u4ea4\u5a92\u4f53\u65f6\u4ee3\uff0c\u6b64\u7c7b\u5185\u5bb9\u5e38\u4ee5\u56fe\u6587\u5e76\u8302\u3001\u8bed\u8a00\u8f7b\u677e\u7684\u5f62\u5f0f\u4f20\u64ad\uff0c\u8fdb\u4e00\u6b65\u589e\u5f3a\u4e86\u5176\u5f71\u54cd\u529b\u3002\u4f46\u6211\u4eec\u4e5f\u5e94\u8b66\u60d5\u5176\u53ef\u80fd\u5e26\u6765\u7684\u526f\u4f5c\u7528\uff1a\u8fc7\u5ea6\u5173\u6ce8\u8fd0\u52bf\u53ef\u80fd\u5bfc\u81f4\u90e8\u5206\u4eba\u5c06\u6210\u8d25\u5b8c\u5168\u5f52\u56e0\u4e8e\u5916\u5728\u547d\u8fd0\uff0c\u4ece\u800c\u524a\u5f31\u4e3b\u89c2\u80fd\u52a8\u6027\u548c\u8d23\u4efb\u610f\u8bc6\u3002\n<\/p>\n
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